Climate Change Effects on Crop Area Dynamics in the Cachar District of Assam, India: An Empirical Study

Abstract

Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon that significantly impacts the area, production, and yield of crops. Changes in climate conditions have diverse effects on farming globally. For instance, an increase in temperature can make specific crops more vulnerable to pests. Similarly, a decrease in rainfall reduces water availability, affecting both irrigated and rainfed farming practices. This study aims to investigate climate change effects on crop area dynamics in the Cachar district of Assam, India, for a period spanning from 1981 to 2017. The time series ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is employed to analyze the relationship between climate factors and areas under different crops. As a pre-requisite condition for ARDL, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is employed to check the order of integration of area under selected crops. The research reveals that the annual average temperature negatively affects the area dedicated to chickpeas, while annual average rainfall negatively impacts the areas allocated to rice and chickpeas. Conversely, annual average relative humidity has a significant positive impact on the area of these crops in the study region. Policymakers may consider strategies and policies for agriculture by encouraging the cultivation of crop varieties that are more resilient to climate change.