Estimating Venous Thromboembolism Risk in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Inpatients: Validation of Existing Risk Scores and Development of New Risk Scores

Abstract

Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients are predisposed to venous thromboembolism (VTE). This study aimed to (1) evaluate the efficacy of 4 existing cancer-specific VTE models in predicting VTE incidence among hospitalized mCRC patients, and (2) examine the influence of incorporating mCRC molecular subtypes into these models. We conducted an evaluation of 4 cancer-specific VTE models, including Khorana, Vienna CATS, Protecht, and CONKO in a dataset involving 1392 mCRC patients. To evaluate the predictive performance, we utilized receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for both the original models and the modified models that incorporated microsatellite instability status or KRAS/NRAS/BRAF mutations. Moreover, we computed the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to quantify the enhancements made to the modified VTE risk models. All models demonstrated a moderate area under the ROC curve (ROC-AUC) when predicting the occurrence of VTE: Khorana (0.550), Vienna CATS (0.671), Protecht (0.652), and CONKO (0.578). The incorporation of KRAS and BRAF mutations significantly improved the ROC-AUC of all 4 existing models (modified Khorana: 0.796, modified Vienna CATS: 0.832, modified Protecht: 0.834, and modified CONKO: 0.809). After dichotomizing the risk using a threshold of 3 points and comparing them with the original models, NRI values for the 4 modified models were 0.97, 0.95, 1.11, and 0.98, respectively. All 4 cancer-specific VTE models exhibit moderate performance when identifying mCRC patients at high risk of VTE. Incorporating KRAS and BRAF mutations may enhance the prediction of VTE in hospitalized mCRC patients.