Water quality modeling for urban reach of Yamuna river, India (1999–2009), using QUAL2Kw

Abstract

The study was to characterize and understand the water quality of the river Yamuna in Delhi (India) prior to an efficient restoration plan. A combination of collection of monitored data, mathematical modeling, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis has been done using the QUAL2Kw, a river quality model. The model was applied to simulate DO, BOD, total coliform, and total nitrogen at four monitoring stations, namely Palla, Old Delhi Railway Bridge, Nizamuddin, and Okhla for 10 years (October 1999–June 2009) excluding the monsoon seasons (July–September). The study period was divided into two parts: monthly average data from October 1999–June 2004 (45 months) were used to calibrate the model and monthly average data from October 2005–June 2009 (45 months) were used to validate the model. The R2 for CBODf and TN lies within the range of 0.53–0.75 and 0.68–0.83, respectively. This shows that the model has given satisfactory results in terms of R2 for CBODf, TN, and TC. Sensitivity analysis showed that DO, CBODf, TN, and TC predictions are highly sensitive toward headwater flow and point source flow and quality. Uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo showed that the input data have been simulated in accordance with the prevalent river conditions.