A mathematical model of visceral leishmaniasis transmission and control: Impact of ITNs on VL prevention and elimination in the Indian subcontinent

Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly, vector-borne, parasitic, neglected tropical disease, particularly prevalent on the Indian subcontinent. Sleeping under the long-lasting insecticide- treated nets (ITNs) was considered an effective VL prevention and control measures, until KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India, did not show enough supporting evidence. In this paper, we adapt a biologically accurate, yet relatively simple compartmental ordinary differential equations (ODE) model of VL transmission and explicitly model the use of ITNs and their role in VL prevention and elimination. We also include a game-theoretic analysis in order to determine an optimal use of ITNs from the individuals' perspective. In agreement with the previous more detailed and complex model, we show that the ITNs coverage amongst the susceptible population has to be unrealistically high (over 96%) in order for VL to be eliminated. However, we also show that if the whole population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic VL cases adopt about 90% ITN usage, then VL can be eliminated. Our model also suggests that ITN usage should be accompanied with other interventions such as vector control.