Accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the North Aegean Trough, Greece

Abstract

A recently developed algorithm has been applied to define regions of the northern Aegean in which accelerating seismic crustal deformation is currently occurring. An elliptical such region has been found in the western part of the North Aegean. Accelerating deformation, which started three decades ago and has been released by the generation of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes (M ≥ 4.5), is still occurring. Based on these observations we can assume that this region is now in a state (pre-shock deformation) that will lead to a critical point (main shock). The estimated basic parameters of this impending main shock are = 39.7°N, λ = 23.7°E for the epicentre, M = 6.0 for the moment magnitude, and tc = 2001 for the origin time. The corresponding uncertainties are less than 1000 km for the epicentre, ±0.4 for the magnitude, and ± 1.5 yr for the origin time.