Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts

Abstract

Background. Household contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) are at great risk of TB infection. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of TB transmission among household contacts. Method. This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study, in which a total of 700 TB patients and 3417 household contacts were enrolled between 2010 and 2013 at two study sites in Peru. The incidence of secondary TB cases among household contacts of index cases was recorded. The LASSO regression method was used to reduce the data dimension and to filter variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to develop the predictive model, and internal validation was performed. A nomogram was constructed to display the model, and the AUC was calculated. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated. Results. The incidence of TB disease among the contacts of index cases was 4.4% (149/3417). Ten variables (gender, age, TB history, diabetes, HIV, index patient's drug resistance, socioeconomic status, spoligotypes, and the index-contact share sleeping room status) filtered through the LASSO regression technique were finally included in the predictive model. The model showed good discriminatory ability, with an AUC value of 0.761 (95% CI, 0.723-0.800) for the derivation and 0.759 (95% CI, 0.717-0.796) for the internal validation. The predictive model showed good calibration, and the DCA demonstrated that the model was clinically useful. Conclusion. A predictive model was developed that incorporates characteristics of both the index patients and the contacts, which may be of great value for the individualized prediction of TB transmission among household contacts.