Art Market Investment Bubble during COVID-19—Case Study of the Rare Books Market in Poland

Abstract

The literature provides information on the impact of the pandemic on various markets. Many articles suggest the necessity of diversifying investment portfolios during financial market turmoil. The article in a unique way analyzed the rare books market in Poland during the COVID-19 period. The results of rare books auctions (the largest players with 85% of the market share were taken into account) over the 2018–2022 period were considered. The authors presented the hypothesis that COVID-19 triggered an investment bubble which may burst quite suddenly after the pandemic period. The data presented confirm the hypothesis, showing sharp increases (up to 50%) in sales revenues and a subsequent collapse. Less spectacular results were obtained when analyzing the number of books offered and sold in a given period. The authors used descriptive measures as well as statistical tests. A simple model calculating possible revenue in conjunction with the WPDI (World Pandemics Discussion Index) indicator was also presented.