Predicting rapid adaptation in time from adaptation in space: A 30-year field experiment in marine snails

Abstract

Predicting the outcomes of adaptation is a major goal of evolutionary biology. When temporal changes in the environment mirror spatial gradients, it opens up the potential for predicting the course of adaptive evolution over time based on patterns of spatial genetic and phenotypic variation. We assessed this approach in a 30-year transplant experiment in the intertidal snail Littorina saxatilis. In 1992, snails were transplanted from a predation-dominated environment to one dominated by wave action. On the basis of spatial patterns, we predicted transitions in shell size and morphology, allele frequencies at positions throughout the genome, and chromosomal rearrangement frequencies. Observed changes closely agreed with predictions and transformation was both dramatic and rapid. Hence, adaptation can be predicted from knowledge of the phenotypic and genetic variation among populations.