Validity of an early risk score for older adults

Abstract

Objectives: To determine if a risk score developed in hospitalised older adults in the UK in 1962 is correlated with other measures of health and if this risk score predicts death or institutionalisation in community-living older adults. Methods: A total of 1,735 older adults residing in the community in 1991 were followed over five years We replicated the original risk index, a composite score of cognitive status, disability and continence. Other measures included age, gender, education, self-rated health (SRH), life satisfaction (LS) and frailty. Death and nursing home (NH) admission were determined five years later. Results: The risk score was strongly associated with frailty, SRH and LS. The index predicted mortality and NH use: The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) from multinomial logistic regression models was 0.74 (0.69, 0.79) for death and 0.74 (0.67, 0.83) for NH. Conclusions: A risk score devised to measure inpatient rehabilitation also predicts outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. Cognition and function predict a variety of adverse outcomes in a variety of settings in different historic eras. © 2014 Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh.