A combined forecasting system based on modified multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed and wind power forecasting

Abstract

Wind speed and wind power are two important indexes for wind farms. Accurate wind speed and power forecasting can help to improve wind farm management and increase the contribu-tion of wind power to the grid. However, nonlinear and non-stationary wind speed and wind power can influence the forecasting performance of different models. To improve forecasting accuracy and overcome the influence of the original time series on the model, a forecasting system that can effectively forecast wind speed and wind power based on a data pre-processing strategy, a modified multi-objective optimization algorithm, a multiple single forecasting model, and a combined model is developed in this study. A data pre-processing strategy was implemented to determine the wind speed and wind power time series trends and to reduce interference from noise. Multiple artificial neural network forecasting models were used to forecast wind speed and wind power and construct a combined model. To obtain accurate and stable forecasting results, the multi-objective optimization algorithm was employed to optimize the weight of the combined model. As a case study, the developed forecasting system was used to forecast the wind speed and wind power over 10 min from four different sites. The point forecasting and interval forecasting results revealed that the developed forecasting system exceeds all other models with respect to forecasting precision and stability. Thus, the developed system is extremely useful for enhancing forecasting precision and is a reasonable and valid tool for use in intelligent grid programming.