Atmospheric River Lifecycle Responses to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Abstract

We investigate how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical subseasonal variability, modulates the lifecycle of cool-season North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs). When the enhanced (suppressed) convection center is located over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), more AR events originate over eastern Asia and with fewer over the subtropical northern Pacific. When the enhanced (suppressed) convection is over the western Pacific (Indian Ocean), the opposite changes occur, with more AR events originate over the subtropical northern Pacific and fewer over eastern Asia. Dynamical processes involving anomalous MJO wind and seasonal mean moisture are found to be the dominant factors impacting these variations in AR origins. The MJO-related anomalous geopotential height patterns are also shown to modulate the propagation of the AR events. These MJO–AR lifecycle relationships are further supported by model simulations.