Minable coal reserve estimation by incorporating tonnage and calorific value uncertainties by successive multiple-point and two-point geostatistical simulation algorithms

Abstract

Estimating reserves and quantifying resources stand as pivotal and intricate endeavours within the realm of coal mining operations. Intricate geological formations compound the challenges in resource estimation, thereby complicating reserve calculations. The uncertainties tied to geological attributes of coal, encompassing parameters like tonnage and coal quality, wield significant sway over resource and reserve computations within coal mines. This research delves into the domain of geological uncertainties, with a specific focus on calorific value, aiming to numerically characterise resources and reserves within an open-pit coal mine situated in Indonesia. To quantify resources, the coal seam geometry underwent simulation via a multi-point geostatistical technique known as single normal equation simulation. A geologically established coal seam served as the training image for generating 20 equiprobable coal models. To simulate CV, 50 realisations were generated for each simulated coal seam, utilising sequential Gaussian simulation. Deviations of the simulated coal seams ranged from-0.07% to 5.48% in comparison to the training image. The CV simulation yielded an average value of 5,920.29 kcal/ kg, accompanied by a standard deviation of 586.54 kcal/kg. However, the average CV spanned from 5,305.26 kcal/kg to 6,526.55 kcal/kg across diverse simulations. For reserve calculation within the context of geological uncertainties, an algorithm rooted in maximum flow graph theory was employed to construct the ultimate pit for the coal mine. Within this final pit, the average stripping ratio was 1.62, coupled with a CV value of 6,019.66 kcal/kg. When juxtaposed with the deterministic model, the findings underscore that the stochastic ultimate pit delineates a more expansive excavation, accompanied by a heightened undiscounted cash flow.