Time-dependent earthquake risk assessment modeling incorporating sustainability metrics

Abstract

In this paper a comprehensive methodology for the time-dependent seismic risk assessment of structures located in a multi-hazard environment, that explicitly accounts for the effects of (1) time-varying seismic hazard, (2) long-term structural deterioration, and (3) losses from damage to structural components and those from environmental impacts is presented as an extension of the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework. The time-dependent hazard is modeled through an increasing hazard rate distribution. Structural deterioration depends on the deterioration rate and the time since construction. After verification with laboratory data, the methodology is applied to columns found in bridges in California corresponding to different design dates. Life cycle analysis is performed for direct damage losses and for environmental impacts. It is found that the time-dependent hazard and deterioration modeling have important implications to the risk. Moreover, the environment where the structure is located is found to be important in the evaluation of deterioration rate.