Evaluating the Position of Côte d’Ivoire’s Cocoa Industry on the Global Production Chain and the Influencing Factors

Abstract

This study investigates the position of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry within the global production chain and identifies key influencing factors from 1960 to 2024. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research evaluates the effects of economic and climate variables—cocoa bean production, global cocoa prices, GDP contributions, domestic cocoa grindings, rainfall, and temperature—on cocoa exports. The findings reveal that a 1% increase in global cocoa prices decreases exports by 0.45%, indicating significant price sensitivity. Cocoa bean production accounts for 42.39% of export variance over the long term, while GDP contributions (0.88%) and domestic cocoa grindings (0.34%) enhance competitiveness and value addition. Rainfall negatively impacts productivity, underscoring vulnerabilities to climate variability, whereas temperature has a short-term positive effect on export performance (0.12%). Short-term dynamics demonstrate rapid adjustments toward equilibrium, with adjustment speeds of 41.23% for Côte d’Ivoire and 37.21% for Ghana. The study highlights Côte d’Ivoire’s dependence on raw cocoa exports and its susceptibility to price volatility and climate risks. By comparing Côte d’Ivoire with Ghana, the analysis underscores the advantages of robust domestic processing policies. To ensure long-term sustainability, the study recommends expanding domestic cocoa processing, adopting agroforestry practices to mitigate climate risks, and investing in infrastructure to boost competitiveness and resilience.