Nonlinear model of infection wavy oscillation of COVID-19 in Japan based on diffusion kinetics

Abstract

The infectious propagation of SARS-CoV-2 is continuing worldwide, and specifically, Japan is facing severe circumstances. Medical resource maintenance and action limitations remain the central measures. An analysis of long-term follow-up reports in Japan shows that the infection number follows a unique wavy oscillation, increasing and decreasing over time. However, only a few studies explain the infection wavy oscillation. This study introduces a novel nonlinear mathematical model of the new infection wavy oscillation by applying the macromolecule diffusion theory. In this model, the diffusion coefficient that depends on population density gives nonlinearity in infection propagation. As a result, our model accurately simulated infection wavy oscillations, and the infection wavy oscillation frequency and amplitude were closely linked with the recovery rate of infected individuals. In conclusion, our model provides a novel nonlinear contact infection analysis framework.