Multi-objective optimization of resilient design of the multipurpose reservoir in conditions of uncertain climate change

Abstract

This paper presents and assesses a new approach to decision-making methods for the design of new reservoirs due in times of decreasing water resources. The methods used in this case are decision theory, Resilience and Robustness method. The methods have been selected primarily to analyze different design parameters of a new dam, mainly dam heights leading to different reservoir volumes. The study presents a novel approach to the optimal design of a multipurpose reservoir that would provide enough water for downstream environmental flow, residential and industrial water supply, agricultural water supply, and hydropower generation in the current conditions of climate uncertainty. Uncertainties are interpreted as possible future changes in the climate system using outputs from regional climatic models. In the case study, a simulation model was developed which is able to quantify long-term water balance and use this data to quantify resilience and robustness of its water supply. The simulation model was correlated to the GANetXL software in order to perform Genetic Algorithms based optimization of the reservoir's operation. The simulation-optimization model was then applied to a real-life case study in the Czech Republic, in the Morava River Basin where a new dam with the multipurpose reservoir is planned to be built in the future. The results obtained in this way were analyzed in detail to identify the overall best solution consist of dam height and the total reservoir monthly outflow and new operational rules for the analyzed multipurpose reservoir.