Shifting spatial patterns in German population trends: local-level hot and cold spots, 1990-2019

Abstract

The population development of German municipalities is characterized by pronounced regional disparities. We seek to shed new light on the shifting patterns of population development in Germany at the local level between 1990 and 2019 to understand better the drivers of population development at the local level and to initiate a debate on the (dis)advantages of longitudinal analyses of population change at the local level and the resulting methodological challenges. We address three interrelated questions: (1) how do patterns of local population trends shift over time and in space? (2) Where are the hot and cold spots of population development, and how stable are they? (3) Are there any persistent outliers defying the regional trends of population development? We use a unique database that includes annual data on the population development of all German municipalities to answer these questions. Using spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot-cold-spot analysis, we identify short- and long-term population trajectories that allow us to detect both the hot and the cold spots of population development and islands of growth in otherwise shrinking regions and islands of decline in growing regions. Stable hot spots of population growth exist around Germany's three largest cities - Berlin, Hamburg and Munich - and in the rural northwest. The cold spots of population development are concentrated in rural regions of eastern Germany but also structurally weak, old industrialized rural regions around Brunswick and Kassel and in Upper Franconia, Saarland and Western Palatinate.