Mortality Rates of the Spanish Flu and Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Netherlands: A Historical Comparison

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been called the deadliest disease event in history. In this study, we compared the cause-specific mortality rate of the Spanish flu (1918–1920) with that of COVID-19 (2020–2022) in the Netherlands. During the periods of exposure, about 50 000 people died of COVID-19 and 32 000 people of the Spanish flu. In absolute numbers, COVID-19 seems to be deadlier than Spanish flu. However, the crude mortality rates for COVID-19 and Spanish flu were 287 and 486 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Comparing age-standardized mortality rates, there would have been 28 COVID-19– and 194 Spanish flu–related deaths in 1918–1920, or 214 Spanish flu– and 98 COVID-19–related deaths in 2020–2022 per 100 000 inhabitants per year. Thus, taking the population differences into account, the Spanish flu would have been deadlier than COVID-19.