A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern and the leading infectious cause of mortality globally. The disease exhibits strong prevalence patterns by age and sex, but the implications of these patterns for likely TB exposure and transmission have not previously been systematically assessed. We combined estimates of social mixing patterns and TB prevalence for 177 countries to estimate the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from age groups and sexes. We found that a majority of TB transmission, in both sexes, and for both children and adults, is attributable to contact with adult men. Across age groups, TB exposure typically peaked in adolescence, whereas contributions to TB transmission was flatter or increasing with age, and more variable across regions. Our analysis highlights an important and under-appreciated contribution to transmission in some settings from older adults, who may face particular barriers to healthcare access. More systematic analyses focusing on understanding the epidemiology of TB transmission should be used to inform context-specific prioritization of interventions.