An empirical example of analysis using a two-stage modeling approach: Within-subject association of outdoor context and physical activity predicts future daily physical activity levels

Abstract

People differ from each other to the extent to which momentary factors, such as context, mood, and cognitions, influence momentary health behaviors. However, statistical models to date are limited in their ability to test whether the association between two momentary variables (i.e., subject-level slopes) predicts a subject-level outcome. This study demonstrates a novel two-stage statistical modeling strategy that is capable of testing whether subject-level slopes between two momentary variables predict subject-level outcomes. An empirical case study application is presented to examine whether there are differences in momentary moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels between the outdoor and indoor context in adults and whether these momentary differences predict mean daily MVPA levels 6 months later. One hundred and eight adults from a multiwave longitudinal study provided 4 days of ecological momentary assessment (during baseline) and accelerometry data (both at baseline and 6 month follow-up). Multilevel data were analyzed using an open-source program (MixWILD) to test whether momentary strength between outdoor context and MVPA during baseline was associated with average daily MVPA levels measured 6 months later. During baseline, momentary MVPA levels were higher in outdoor contexts as compared to indoor contexts (b = 0.07, p