THE EFFECTS OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SHOCKS IN ENERGY SECURITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to examine the causality relationship between energy security and growth in Turkey between the years 1980-2018, using Asymmetric Causality Test proposed by Hatemi-J (2012). The most important factor that makes this study important is that it is the only study to examine the asymmetric relationship between energy security and economic growth among the few studies that empirically examine the effects of energy security on economic growth. According to the classical causality analysis performed in this study, there is not causality relationship between energy security and economic growth. The Asymmetric Causality Test results of Hatemi-J (2012) reveals that there is one-way causality relationship from an increase in the energy security risk level (i.e., a positive shocks) to a negative shock in GDP, while there is not the causality relationship from a decrease in the energy security risk level (i.e., a negative shocks) to growth. This result, which implies that the effects of positive and negative shocks on growth are different at the level of energy security risk, demonstrate that the priority policies for energy security are the measures to prevent the emergence of factors that increase the energy security risk level.