Statistical modelling of the main features of the Artemisia pollen season in Wrocław, Poland, during the 2002–2011 time period

Abstract

The aim of this article is to present statistical forecasting models concerning the dynamics of Artemisia pollen seasons in Wrocław, including the start and end, the date of maximum pollen concentration and seasonal pollen index (SPI). For statistical evaluation, use was made of aerobiological and meteorological data from the last 10 years (2002–2011). Based on this data, agroclimatic indicators, i.e. crop heat units (CHUs), were determined for various averaging periods. The beginning of the Artemisia pollen season in the studied time period, on average, took place on 23 June. Its length usually varied between 26 and 45 days, and maximum daily concentrations occurred between 31 July and 18 August. It was found that the beginning of the pollen season depends, above all, on the values of CHUs and photothermal unit (PTU) (p < 0.05) in the period from March to June, for various thermal thresholds. The date of maximum daily concentration correlates with sunshine duration, PTU and air temperature for June and July (p < 0.05). On the other hand, SPI is connected with thermal variables, i.e. average, maximum and minimum air temperatures and CHUs and heliothermal unit (HTU) for July (p < 0.05) and the beginning of spring. Based on the correlation analysis and the chosen variables, regression models for the beginning date of Artemisia pollen season and SPI were prepared, which were then verified by using leave-one-out cross-validation. A better fit between modelled and actual values was found for the analysis concerning the season start date than for the SPI.