Is the "hot-hands" phenomenon a misperception of random events?

Abstract

T. Gilovich, R. Vallone, and A. Tversky (1985) asked whether the so-called hot-hands phenomenon - a temporary elevation of the probability of successful shots - actually exists in basketball. They concluded that hot-hands are misperceived random events. This paper reexamines the truth of their conclusion. The present study's main concern was the sensitivity of the statistical tests used in Gilovich et al.'s research. Simulated records of shots over a season were used. These represented many different situations and players, but they always contained at least one hot-hand period. The issue was whether Gilovich et al.'s tests were sensitive enough to detect the hot-hands embedded in the records. The study found that this sensitivity depends on the frequency of hot-hand periods, the total number of shots in all hot-hand periods, the number of shots in each hot-hand period, and the size of the increase in the probability of successful shots in hot-hand periods. However, when the values of those variables were set realistically, on average the tests could detect only about 12% of the hot-hands phenomena.