Governance and Sustainable Pathways to Food Security: The Critical Role of Fiscal Capacity and Logistical Infrastructure

Abstract

Food security is a national strategic issue that requires the coordination of fiscal policy, local government performance, and efficient logistics. West Sulawesi Province has substantial agricultural, plantation, and fisheries potential, yet food self-sufficiency remains suboptimal due to low fiscal independence, limited regional budget effectiveness, and inadequate distribution infrastructure. This study examines the impact of fiscal accountability, regional budget performance, and logistics on food self-sufficiency and projects outcomes to 2029. A Quantitative-Qualitative Hybrid Model with an explanatory sequential design was applied. Quantitative analysis used Structural Equation Modeling (WarpPLS), while qualitative data were collected through interviews, focus group discussions, and SOAR analysis. ARIMA was employed for projections of food self-sufficiency. Results show fiscal accountability negatively affects food self-sufficiency (coefficient -0.220; p = 0.032), regional budget performance has a positive effect (coefficient 0.335; p = 0.002), and logistics negatively influences outcomes (coefficient -0.780; p < 0.001). Projections indicate improvements in fiscal independence, local revenue effectiveness, and spending efficiency, alongside reductions in logistical constraints, raising the Food Security Index from 75.72 in 2026 to 78.77 in 2029. These findings suggest that strengthening fiscal capacity, optimizing regional budgets, and developing integrated logistics infrastructure are essential strategies to accelerate West Sulawesi’s achievement of its 2029 food sovereignty target.