An empirical analysis on the nonlinear relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in China

Abstract

Based on the traditional theory of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), this paper selects the panel data in 2000-2017 of 30 provincial administrative regions (provinces) in China as objects, and estimates the per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of each province. On this basis, an EKC econometric model with spatial effect was established, and used to empirically analyze the nonlinear relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. The main results are as follows: (1) The provinces differed greatly in per capita CO2 emissions; the per capita CO2 emissions of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Liaoning were relatively high, while those of Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Sichuan and Hainan were relatively low. (2) In addition to obvious spatial correlation, the per capita CO2 emissions of the provinces have spatial heterogeneity: Most provinces belong to cluster areas, but only a few fall in the areas of spatial outliers. (3) The EKC spatial econometric model shows that the economic growth has a significant inverted U relationship with CO2 emissions. In other words, with the growth in economy, the CO2 emissions firstly increase and then decrease. (4) CO2 emissions are clearly promoted by industrial structure, energy consumption structure and environmental regulation, but suppressed by the level of opening.