Quantitative risk assessment for Optimum Mud weight window design: A case study

Abstract

Deterministic approach in selecting mud weight window at pre-drill condition has uncertainties for wellbore stability analysis. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) technique has been successfully used in pre-drill condition addressing the variability of input parameters like, principal stresses and rock properties. The output of this process recommends the mud weight window with probability of drilling success which can avoid the wellbore collapse and lost circulation events. This kind of stochastic approach to predict safe mud weight window can assure stable wellbore with significant cost effectiveness related to drilling success. A workflow to perform QRAis demonstrated which starts with derivation of stresses in deviated wellbore. Seismic velocity data has been used to estimate pore pressure and validated with formation pressure obtained from reservoir characterization instrument data for a study well located in east coast of India. Mogi-Coulomb failure criteria have been used to estimate required mud weights to avoid shear failure. Mud weights required to avoid lost circulation has also been calculated. Then QRA has been accomplished to predict safe mud weight window sat specific depth within 14 ¾” hole and borehole section (12 ¼”). The results have been validated with real data set and based on that exercise, mechanical earth model and uncertainty associated with input parameters for study well has been established. A feasibility study has been performed to check the viability of drilling a near horizontal (75ο inclination) well along the reservoir unit with azimuth of 250ο. The wellbore collapse and lost circulation curves intersect near 35% probability of success point. The results of QRA indicate that the inclination and azimuth would not be favorable for successful drilling in this scenario. Based on these QRA, recommendations have been made in data acquisition plan for future drilling to reduce the variability in input parameters and successful completion of well.