RECOGNITION AND ANALYSIS OF THE KEY FACTORS OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN IRAN WITH FUTURES STUDIES APPROACH

Abstract

In third world countries, the failure of rural development programmes is one of the main challenges of development. To overcome this challenge and achieve real rural development, we need comprehensive planning with a futuristic approach. Understanding the key factors of development is important because it guides the main framework of development; therefore, key factors must be identified with the participation of all stakeholders. Iran has more than 1,00,000 villages which are different in terms of economic, social, natural, historical and cultural indicators. Therefore, in this study, experts from 23 universities across the country were consulted to obtain comprehensive key factors. The aim of this study is to recognise and analyse key indices of rural development by futures studies approach using experts' opinions in order to recognise key factors for Iran's rural development. The study method is based on Delphi methods. Key factors and effective indices of Iran's rural development were selected using Porter five forces (social, technical, economic, environmental and political) for macro environment. Further, cross-impact analysis of promoter factors and analytic hierarchy process were used in order to determine main promoter factors in terms of importance, effectiveness and lack of uncertainty. According to the findings, five components with high effectiveness are participation, investment and entrepreneurship, expert human resources, natural resources, and generating income. Certainty and uncertainty of their key factors are discussed in order to plan the required measurements of control and guidance for Iran's rural development.