Pavement Deterioration Model Using Markov Chain and International Roughness Index

Abstract

Pavement deterioration leads to drop in serviceability and possibly failure of pavement sections due to initiation and expansion of distresses such as cracks and rutting. This paper aimed at predicting the future condition of pavement sections based on Markov chain model and the international roughness index (IRI). Developing this model can facilitate life cycle analysis and selecting the correct treatment at the right time. The historical IRI data of Canadian pavement sections were collected from Long term pavement performance (LTPP) database. IRI values were used to assess condition of the pavement sections based on the recommended ranges by the Federal highway administration (FHWA). The transition probabilities were estimated using the percentage prediction method based on historical condition data extracted from the LTPP. These probabilities are assembled in a transition probability matrix essential for the Markov chain model. The developed matrix can be used to forecast pavement conditions after any number of transition periods. The developed method assists in predicting pavement performance and facilitates the decision-making process. The method is applied to a real case study to examine its validity. The model can be expanded further by considering additional data from additional pavement networks.