Methodologies for managing complex systems under uncertainty

Abstract

The problems of managing socio-technical systems, the complexity of which is constantly increasing, in a time when the external environment becomes more and more volatile, and large-scale changes develop unpredictable effects, requires managers to have an adequate response and act pre-emptively in unexpected situations. In this regard, it appears practical to apply methods of systems engineering that was created for designing complex systems and keeping them functional throughout their lifecycle. An analysis of various theoretical concepts and practical approaches employed in systems engineering showed their potential for being adapted to the purposes of managing complex systems under uncertainty. For example, the method of engineering resilience could be used for training interdisciplinary teams that need to be able to handle complex problems with speed, coordination, initiative and mutual support. It also appears usable for setting up coordination centers that produce strategic assessments of implications, set priorities, distribute resources, motivate teams and provide training, thus building preparedness to address unforeseen problems. The method of Agile systems engineering is effective for pre-empting problems that occur as a result of intensive technological development and are characterized by capriciousness, uncertainty, risk, variability, and evolution. The above methods were applied for training breakthrough teams - an original project of the authors that has proved highly efficient for solving tasks of high complexity and uncertainty in energy companies and at Ural Federal University.