A Spatial Analysis of the Association Between Urban Heat and Coronary Heart Disease

Abstract

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in both the United States and globally. Urban heat is increasingly recognized as a significant public health challenge, particularly in its connection to cardiovascular conditions. This study, conducted in Jefferson County, Kentucky, examines the distribution of coronary heart disease rates and develops an urban heat risk index to examine underlying socioeconomic and environmental factors. We applied bivariate spatial association (Lee’s L), Global Moran’s I, and multiple linear regression methods to examine the relationships between key variables and assess model significance. Global Moran’s I revealed clustered distributions of both coronary heart disease rates and land surface temperature across census tracts. Bivariate spatial analysis identified clusters of high heart disease rates and temperatures within the West End, while clusters of contiguous suburban tracts exhibited lower heart disease rates and temperatures. Regression analyses yielded significant results for both the ordinary least squares (OLS) model and the spatial regression model; however, the spatial error model explained a greater proportion of the variation in coronary heart disease rates across tracts compared to the OLS model. This study offers new insights into spatial disparities in coronary heart disease rates and their associations with environmental risk factors including urban heat, underscoring the challenges faced by many urban communities.