Ser eleito para um cargo público é um bom negócio? Evidências das eleições municipais no Brasil

Abstract

This article examines the monetary returns on incumbency in Brazilian mayoral elections. In other words, we estimate the causal effect of winning a close election on the wealth declared by Brazilian mayoral candidates in the subsequent election. To do so, we employ a regression discontinuity design of close elections focused on pairs of repeated candidates. The results suggest that there are no causal effects of winning a close election on the wealth of the candidates. The results are robust for incumbent partisanship, region, and political experience, and they also hold if the definition of wealth is extended to relatives and long-term wealth.