Climate Resilience and Sustainable Labor: Spatio-Temporal Shifts in Economic Losses from High Temperatures and Implications for Sustainable Development in China

Abstract

As the global climate continues to warm, continuous high-temperature heat waves have a significant impact on urban socio-economic and sustainable development. Based on the relationship equation between the WBGT index and labor productivity, this paper estimates the economic losses caused by high temperature in 278 cities in China, and investigates the spatial-temporal evolution of the urban economic losses. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Nationally, the secondary industry experiences the highest average economic losses. Cities in southern, eastern, and central China exhibit the greatest vulnerability, necessitating prioritized climate adaptation planning. (2) Temporally, the average economic losses due to high temperature in Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020 showed a fluctuating upward trend, increasing from 1.343 billion yuan in 2010 to 5.557 billion yuan in 2020. The national average WBGT index increased by 1.69 °C between 2010 and 2020. For every 1 °C increase in the WBGT index, the national economic loss is projected to increase by 0.249 billion yuan. (3) Spatially, areas with high average economic losses were predominantly concentrated in eastern regions, whereas western and central regions exhibited relatively lower losses. The northeastern region recorded the lowest average economic losses. (4) The center of economic loss shifted southwestward from Huangshi City (2010) to Jiujiang City (2020), with an overall migration distance of 143.37 km. The migration velocity exhibited a decelerating trend. This study aims to provide insights for formulating differentiated regional climate adaptation policies and advancing the development of sustainable cities that are resilient to high temperatures while balancing social equity and economic stability.