Study on the Natural Gas Consumption and its Change Prediction

Abstract

The global total natural gas consumption has risen to 3.67 trillion cubic meters in 2017 according to BP statistics. It is predicted that natural gas will be "the first one" in all primary energy before 2040. The global natural gas demand is expected to reach 4.9 trillion cubic meters respectively in 2040, accounting for 26.9% in the total primary energy consumption. The natural gas consumption analysis shows that the total consumption in the top twelve natural gas consumption countries accounts for 64.5% of the global. The natural gas consumption in America and Russia exceeded one third of the world in 2015. The gas consumption in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, and China and South Africa) has risen dramatically since 1980s. After 1990s, the consumption in the Asia-Pacific region has been on the rise, and the cumulative increment took the first place from 1975 to 2015. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to be the new global consumption center after Europe and America. From the point of per capita consumption, North America, the Middle East and former Soviet Union with rich natural gas resources have exceeded to 2 tons of oil equivalent, nevertheless, the less-developed regions such as Asia-Africa-Latin America are below 0.5 ton of oil equivalent. The gas natural consumption in none-OECD countries exceeded that of OECD in 2007, and the gap has increased year by year. However, the per capita consumption of natural gas in OECD is 5.2 times of Non-OECD. The consumption pattern is mainly influenced by economy development, if natural gas production pattern by resource endowment.