Seasonal Upwelling Forecasts in the California Current System

Abstract

Coastal upwelling plays a vital role in the support and maintenance of productive marine ecosystems throughout the California Current System (CCS). Here, we evaluate upwelling forecast skill using ∼30 years of seasonal reforecasts from four global climate models contributing to the North American Mulitmodel Ensemble (NMME). The models skillfully predict upwelling intensity throughout much of the CCS in boreal winter, and in the South-Central CCS in spring/summer. The models also skillfully predict various aspects of upwelling phenology, including the timing of the spring transition, as well as the total vertical transport integrated over the course of the upwelling season. Climatic sources of forecast skill vary with season, with contributions from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in winter-spring, and the North Pacific Oscillation and the North Pacific Meridional Mode in the winter-summer. Our results highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts to inform management of upwelling-sensitive marine resources.