Early prediction of the 3-month outcome for individual acute ischemic stroke patients who received intravenous thrombolysis using the N2H3 nomogram model

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram model for individualized early prediction of the 3-month prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) who were treated with intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) thrombolysis. Methods: A total of 691 patients were included in this study; 564 patients were included in the training cohort, while 127 patients were included in the test cohort. The main outcome measure was a 3-month unfavorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 3–6). To construct the nomogram model, stepwise logistic regression analysis was applied to select the significant predictors of the outcome. The discriminative performance of the model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate prognostic value of the model. Results: The initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS, odds ratio (OR), 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28–1.44; p < 0.001], delta NIHSS (changes in the NIHSS score from baseline to 24 h, OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70–0.79; p < 0.001), hypertension (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.32–3.31; p = 0.002), hyperhomocysteinemia (Hhcy, OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.20–4.11; p = 0.013), and the ratio of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (HDL-C/LDL-C, OR, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.00–10.89; p = 0.049) (N2H3) were found to be independent predictors of a 3-month unfavorable outcome from multivariate logistic regression analysis and were incorporated in the N2H3 nomogram model. The AUC-ROC of the training cohort was 0.872 (95% CI, 0.841–0.902), and the AUC-ROC of the test cohort was 0.900 (95% CI, 0.848–0.953). Conclusion: The study presented the N2H3 nomogram model, with initial NIHSS score, delta NIHSS, hypertension, Hhcy, and HDL-C/LDL-C as predictors. It therefore provides an individualized early prediction of the 3-month unfavorable outcome in AIS patients treated with intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis.