Model Development for Life Cycle Assessment of Rice Yellow Stem Borer under Rising Temperature Scenarios

Abstract

A simple model was developed using Fortran Simulation Translator to study the influence of increased temperature on duration of various life cycle phases of yellow stem borer (YSB) in Bangladesh environment. Model was primarily based on Growing Degree Day concept, by also including cardinal temperatures sensitive for specific growing stages of YSB. After successful calibration and validation of the model, it was taken for climate change (only temperature rise considered in the present study) impact analysis on the growing cycle of YSB. Temperature increase values of 1, 2, 3 and 4 oC were considered and compared with the Control (no temperature rise), by using historic weather of representative locations in eight Divisions of Bangladesh. Differential spatial response in the life cycle of YSB under various temperature rise treatments was noticed, and in general the growing cycle hastened with the rising temperature. The life cycle of YSB is likely to be reduced by about 2 days for every degree celcius rise in temperature, while averaged over locations. This means that there will be 2.0-2.5 additional generations of YSB in pre-monsoon season about 2.9-3.2 in wet season of Bangladesh. There is a need to include the phenology module developed in subsequent design of population dynamics model for YSB.