The required confronting approaches efficacy and time to control COVID-19 outbreak in Iran

Abstract

The ongoing devastating epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran and the evolving public health situation is very concerning. We have developed a deterministic epidemiological SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to quantify the required time and efficacy to bring the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Iran. Our results showed that the efficacy of COVID-19 confronting strategies on Feb 29th and March 9th were at 0.5 and 0.7, respectively owing to the relative equivalence number of infected cases estimated by the model and national officially reported cases. Therefore, to control the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran we strongly recommend maintaining the effectiveness of interventions at 0.7 or more at least for the next 4-6 weeks. Because the COVID-19 declining statistics over the next few days or weeks do not mean the definitive control of the outbreak.