Does higher perceived risk of morbidity and mortality decrease risk-taking?

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that people change their behaviour in response to negative shocks such as economic downturns or natural catastrophes. Indeed, the optimal behaviour in terms of inclusive fitness often varies according to a number of parameters, such as the level of mortality risk in the environment. Beyond unprecedented restrictions in everyday life, the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected people's environment. In this study, we investigated how people form their perception of morbidity and mortality risk associated with COVID-19 and how this perception in turn affects psychological traits, such as risk-taking and patience. We analysed data from a large survey conducted during the first wave in France on 3353 nationally representative people. We found that people use public information on COVID-19 deaths in the area where they live to form their perceived morbidity and mortality risk. Using a structural model approach to lift endogeneity concerns, we found that higher perceived morbidity and mortality risk increases risk aversion. We also found that higher perceived morbidity and mortality risk leads to less patience, although this was only observed for high levels of perceived risk. Our results suggest that people adapt their behaviour to anticipated negative health shocks, namely the risk of becoming sick or dying of COVID-19.