Got Theory? On the 21st c. CE Rise of Explicit use of Epidemiologic Theories of Disease Distribution: A Review and Ecosocial Analysis

Abstract

In 1957, an anonymous editorial published in the American Journal of Public Health boldly titled itself, “Prediction and Theory in Epidemiology”, and raised the ante even higher in its subtitle: “Where there is no vision the people perish. Proverbs XXIX.18” Theory is indeed inextricably linked to vision—the Greek word “theoria” refers to seeing inwards, such that to theorize is to use our mind’s eye systematically, following articulated principles, to discern meaningful patterns among both ideas and observations, and to develop causal explanations. Until the last decade of the 20th c. CE, however, development or analysis of epidemiologic theories of disease distribution in the mainstream English-language literature was a rare event. A shift is now underway. In this article, guided by the ecosocial theory of disease distribution, I review developments in contemporary use of explicit epidemiologic theories, and provide critical suggestions for their further development and application.