Deep Learning Predictions for Cryptocurrencies

Abstract

Recently there has been a growing interest in applying neural network modelling from natural language processing to financial time series prediction problems in computational finance. Cryptocurrency price prediction is a challenging problem with non-stationary market price and volatility clustering. Cryp-tocurrency data tends to be non-stationary, which means that predictive information extracted using deep learning techniques on observed data can not be used with future data. Moreover, there is a very little signal in cryptocurrency data to indicate the future direction of the market. This paper proposes a sensible way to frame the prediction problem as a dynamic regression problem by defining the features in the feedforward neural networks and the target as an appropriate average of the historical data. The novelty of this paper is to use deep learning algorithms and statistical bootstrapping to obtain cryptocurrency price prediction and the corresponding prediction intervals. It is shown that neural networks are capable of modelling nonlinearity directly for nonlinear time series models. The proposed hybrid approach is evaluated using simulated and cryptocurrency data through numerical experiments. Moreover, Gaussian and boot-strap prediction intervals for the price and the volatility of the prediction errors, are also discussed in some detail.