Compatibility analysis of precipitation and runoff trends over the large Siberian watersheds

Abstract

The consistency of long-term yearly precipitation and runoff trends over the largest Arctic watersheds (Ob, Yenisei and Lena Rivers) is examined. Three gridded precipitation datasets (Climatic Research Unit, University of Delaware, NCEP) are used for comparative analyses with runoff data collected at basin outlets. The results generally demonstrate inconsistency in long-term changes of basin precipitation and runoff. The Yenisei River runoff increases significantly, while precipitation data show mostly negative trends. The Ob River does not show any significant trend either in precipitation or runoff. Positive trend in the Lena River runoff is accompanied by a weak precipitation increase; however, the precipitation increase is not strong enough to support the observed runoff change. The inconsistency identified in basin precipitation and runoff trends suggests uncertainty in both the quality of basin precipitation and runoff datasets, as well as the perceived hydrologic factors impacting runoff change. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.