Towards a pragmatist theory of systemic mis-performance in transport infrastructure engineer-to-order supply chains

Abstract

Transport infrastructure assets are delivered through engineer-to-order supply chains characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. These projects frequently exceed budgets and schedules, undermining their intended economic and societal benefits. Existing research identifies many causes of misperformance, with two perspectives particularly influential. The Planning Fallacy attributes misperformance to cognitive biases in early-stage planning and investment, while the Fifth Hand argues that bias and error accumulate across an asset’s life cycle. Although distinct, these perspectives are complementary: the Fifth Hand incorporates the Planning Fallacy but remains conceptually underdeveloped, particularly regarding its institutional underpinnings. To address this gap, we undertake a meta-reflexive narrative review that critically synthesises both perspectives. We analyse their assumptions, limitations, and complementarities, and reconceptualise the Fifth Hand as a behavioural–institutional theory by articulating its institutional logics. We conclude by proposing a research agenda towards a pragmatist theory of systemic misperformance, offering new directions for research and practice.