Risk Assessment of Maize Drought in China Based on Physical Vulnerability

Abstract

Applying disaster system theory and with reference to the mechanisms that underlie agricultural drought risk, in this study, crop yield loss levels were determined on the basis of hazards and environmental and hazard-affected entities (crops). Thus, by applying agricultural drought risk assessment methodologies, the spatiotemporal distribution of maize drought risk was assessed at the national scale. The results of this analysis revealed that the overall maize drought risk decreases gradually along a northwest-to-southeast transect within maize planting areas, a function of the climatic change from arid to humid, and that the highest yield loss levels are located at values between 0.35 and 0.45. This translates to drought risks of once in every 10 and 20 years within 47.17% and 43.31% of the total maize-producing areas of China, respectively. Irrespective of the risk level, however, the highest maize yield loss rates are seen in northwestern China. The outcomes of this study provide the scientific basis for the future prevention and mitigation of agricultural droughts as well as the rationalization of related insurance.