Analysis on carbon emission pathways of global industry sector: Sustainability, middle of the road and fossil-fueled development

Abstract

As the cornerstone of social progress, industry's future development pathway is greatly influenced by basic socio-economic assumptions, thusly is of big uncertainties, especially in developing countries, and the developing pattern of industry will bring significant differences in the whole energy system and carbon emission pathway. In order to explore industrial energy demand and emission under different developing patterns, this paper designed three scenarios describing discrepant socio-economic development characteristic based on SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5, conducted energy system optimization with application of GTIMES model, and presented main comparative results under three pathways. To reflect the great differences in industrial characteristics of advanced industrial countries and emerging economies both on industrial energy consumption and carbon emission, this paper also took America and India as instances to conduct simple comparison.