Remote Sensing and Critical Slowing Down Modeling Reveal Vegetation Resilience in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Abstract

Globally, ecosystems are affected by climate change, human activities, and natural disasters, which impact ecosystem quality and stability. Vegetation plays a crucial role in ecosystem material cycle and energy transformation, making it important to monitor its resilience under disturbance stress. The Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicates that as ecosystems near collapse, the autocorrelation of lag temporal increases and resilience decreases. We used the lag Temporal Autocorrelation (TAC) of long-term remote sensing Leaf Area Index (LAI) to monitor vegetation resilience in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). The Disturbance Event Model (DEM) was used to validate the CSD. The results showed the following: (1) The eastern TGRA exhibited high and increasing vegetation resilience, while most areas showed a decline. (2) Among the various vegetation types, forests demonstrated higher resilience than other vegetation types. (3) Precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture significantly influenced vegetation resilience dynamics within the TGRA. (4) For model accuracy, the CSD’s results were consistent with the DEM, confirming its applicability in the TGRA. Overall, the CSD when applied to long-term remote sensing data, provided valuable quantitative indicators for vegetation resilience. Furthermore, more CSD-based indicators are needed to analyze vegetation resilience dynamics and better understand the biological processes determining vegetation degradation and restoration.