Macroeconomic impacts of energy communities and individual prosumers: an assessment of transformation pathways

Abstract

Background: Active citizen participation, especially as collective prosumers in energy communities or as individual prosumers, is vital for a sustainable energy transition. As such, it is explicitly supported by European Union policy. It is the aim of policy-makers that a large proportion of the residential energy demand will be met in this way. At present, there is limited analysis on the macroeconomic impacts of such an increase in prosumers. In this study, we develop and apply an approach for assessing the macroeconomic impacts of transformation pathways, which depict potential developments of individual and collective prosumers. Results: The paper methodologically demonstrates how to macroeconomically assess scenarios and transformation pathways originating from cross-impact balance analyses by means of an input–output analysis. In particular, it is shown how qualitative data on future developments can be transformed into financial flows so as to enable an input–output analysis. Based on the assessment of two transformation pathways, our main findings suggest that there might be positive regional and national effects on net value added and employment as well as reductions in CO2 emissions. We find that the scale of the effects strongly depends on the spatial distribution of heterogeneous households and the underlying economic structure. Conclusions: Our study represents a methodological advancement by showing how scenarios and transformation pathways can be assessed in terms of their macroeconomic consequences. This study shows that energy communities and individual prosumers might generate positive effects on value added and on employment. Given that households fix their energy supply options for decades, political decisions to support the energy transition in the residential sector should be taken as soon as possible.