Long-Term Outcome of Chronic Hepatitis B—Histological Score and Viral Genotype Are Important Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

Current guidelines to prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are based on risk assessments that include age, sex, and virological and biochemical parameters. The study aim was to investigate the impact of predictive markers on long-term outcomes. The clinical outcomes of 100 patients with chronic hepatitis B were investigated 30 years after a baseline assessment that included liver biopsy. A favourable outcome—HBsAg loss or HBeAg-negative infection (ENI; previously termed ‘inactive carrier’)—was observed in 74% of all patients, whereas 7% developed HCC. HBsAg loss was observed in 75% of patients with genotype A, compared with 42%, 33% and 0% with genotypes D, B and C, respectively (p < 0.0001). HCC developed in 3 patients (33%) with genotype C as compared with 3 (17%), 1 (2%) and 0 patients with genotypes B, D and A, respectively (p < 0.0001). In multiple logistic regression analysis, both HBsAg loss and HCC were associated with HBV genotype and baseline HBV DNA level, and HCC also with histological score. The results suggest that genotyping and histological assessment may improve outcome prediction and help decisions about HCC screening, particularly in populations with HBV-infected individuals of mixed geographic origin.