Estimation of net ecosystem production in Asia using the diagnostic-type ecosystem model with a 10 km grid-scale resolution

Abstract

The terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia is highly uncertain, and it affects our understanding of global warming. One of the important issues is the need for an enhancement of spatial resolution, since local regions in Asia are heterogeneous with regard to meteorology, land form, and land cover type, which greatly impacts the detailed spatial patterns in its ecosystem. Thus, an important goal of this study is to reasonably reproduce the heterogeneous biogeochemical patterns in Asia by enhancing the spatial resolution of the ecosystem model biosphere model integrating eco-physiological and mechanistic approaches using satellite data (BEAMS). We estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) over eastern Asia and examined the spatial differences in the factors controlling NEP by using a 10 km grid-scale approach over two different decades (2001–2010 and 2091–2100). The present and future meteorological inputs were derived from satellite observations and the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set, respectively. The results showed that the present NEP in whole eastern Asia was carbon source (−214.9 TgC yr−1) and in future scenarios, the greatest positive (76.4 TgC yr−1) and least negative (−95.9 TgC yr−1) NEPs were estimated from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Calculated annual NEP in RCP8.5 was mostly positive in the southern part of East Asia and Southeast Asia and negative in northern and central parts of East Asia. Under the RCP scenario with higher greenhouse gases emission (RCP8.5), deciduous needleleaf and mixed forests distributed in the middle and high latitudes served as carbon source. In contrast, evergreen broadleaf forests distributed in low latitudes served as carbon sink. The sensitivity study demonstrated that the spatial tendency of NEP was largely influenced by atmospheric CO2 and temperature.