Simulations reveal climate and legacy effects underlying regional beta diversity in alpine vegetation

Abstract

Introduction: Whether the distribution and assembly of plant species are adapted to current climates or legacy effects poses a problem for their conservation during ongoing climate change. The alpine regions of southern and central Europe are compared to those of the western United States and Canada because they differ in their geographies and histories. Methods: Individual-based simulation experiments disentangled the role of geography in species adaptations and legacy effects in four combinations: approximations of observed alpine geographies vs. regular lattices with the same number of regions (realistic and null representations), and virtual species with responses to either climatic or simple spatial gradients (adaptations or legacy effects). Additionally, dispersal distances were varied using five Gaussian kernels. Because the similarity of pairs of regional species pools indicated the processes of assembly at extensive spatiotemporal scales and is a measure of beta diversity, this output of the simulations was correlated to observed similarity for Europe and North America. Results: In North America, correlations were highest for simulations with approximated geography and location-adapted species; those in Europe had their highest correlation with the lattice pattern and climate-adapted species. Only SACEU correlations were sensitive to dispersal limitation. Discussion: The southern and central European alpine areas are more isolated and with more distinct climates to which species are adapted. In the western United States and Canada, less isolation and more mixing of species from refugia has caused location to mask climate adaptation. Among continents, the balance of explanatory factors for the assembly of regional species pools will vary with their unique historical biogeographies, with isolation lessening disequilibria.