Estimating the capacity of a curbside bus stop with multiple berths using probabilistic models

Abstract

Capacity estimation of a curbside bus stop is essential to evaluation of its operation, reliability and performance. Arrival buses and served buses will form an overflow queue and an interlocking queue in loading areas with high frequencies. Therefore, bus stop blockage may reduce the stop capacity. The capacity of a bus stop is modelled as a function of the blockage probability, the arrival of buses, and the service time, while considering the no-overtaking principle and allowable-overtaking principle. This study aims to estimate the capacity, minimum arrival time and maximum service time based on the blockage probability and number of berths. The results indicate that congestion can be effectively alleviated by increasing the number of berths when the demand for loaded buses is low due to the significantly changing probability threshold for a NO stop. A congestion and stopping principle is important when multiple bus routes converge at the same bus stop. By combination with an actual case, an optimal overtaking principle is obtained using a computer program written in the MATLAB environment. The developed methodology can be practically applied to determine the loading principle and designated stopping berths for multi-route buses.